Israel perceives a nuclear Iran as a potentially existential threat. The possible combination of extreme Islamism, a messianic leadership calling to "wipe Israel off the map" and nuclear weapons is deeply sobering. Given Israel's collective memory of the Holocaust and its hostile surroundings, Israelis take this threat especially seriously.
When Israel defines a nuclear Iran as "unacceptable," it means it. But it suspects that for the rest of the world, "unacceptable" really means "undesirable." Mr. Miliband and Mr. Mousavizadeh admit that the price of a nuclear-armed Iran would be "unacceptably high" but fail to say what should be done if non-military pressures fail.
The Israeli discourse is not mere sabre-rattling. It is a real debate driven by the feeling that Iran's nuclear project is advancing, international resolve is insufficient and regime change does not look imminent. Ehud Barak, Israel's defence minister, recently implied that the critical decision point, between "bomb" and "bombing" before it is too late, would be reached in under a year.
Either choice comes with a heavy price. Even assuming Iran can be deterred from using a nuclear bomb, a nuclear Iran will dramatically upset the strategic balance in a region undergoing revolutionary transition. Having defeated international pressure and acquired a nuclear umbrella, Iran will be emboldened as a radical regional pole.
A nuclear Iran will overshadow the calculations of regional actors, trigger a regional nuclear arms race, destroy the non-proliferation treaty and increase the danger of miscalculation towards a nuclear crisis. Iran will escalate its destabilising power projection, threatening Israel and moderate Arab regimes, undermining any peace process, manipulating energy markets and posing as guardian of certain Muslim communities even beyond the Middle East. Over time, one cannot rule out proliferation to non-state actors. Containment and deterrence will do little to offset these severe consequences.
A military strike, on the other hand, could entail serious unintended consequences. Iran will respond violently, both directly and through proxies such as Hizbollah, which has more than 40,000 rockets aimed at Israel. The conflict could escalate into a regional war. Iran may act aggressively in the straits of Hormuz, leading to a spike in oil prices, although disrupting oil exports would be self-defeating.
Michael Herzog, a retired brigadier general in the Israel Defense Forces, is The Washington Institute's Milton Fine international fellow, based in Israel.
The above article was first published in ft.com and was published in washingtoninstitute.org on December 22nd, 2011.
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